Search results for "Conditional random quantitie"
showing 10 items of 21 documents
Probabilities of conditionals and previsions of iterated conditionals
2019
Abstract We analyze selected iterated conditionals in the framework of conditional random quantities. We point out that it is instructive to examine Lewis's triviality result, which shows the conditions a conditional must satisfy for its probability to be the conditional probability. In our approach, however, we avoid triviality because the import-export principle is invalid. We then analyze an example of reasoning under partial knowledge where, given a conditional if A then C as information, the probability of A should intuitively increase. We explain this intuition by making some implicit background information explicit. We consider several (generalized) iterated conditionals, which allow…
Iterated Conditionals and Characterization of P-Entailment
2021
In this paper we deepen, in the setting of coherence, some results obtained in recent papers on the notion of p-entailment of Adams and its relationship with conjoined and iterated conditionals. We recall that conjoined and iterated conditionals are suitably defined in the framework of conditional random quantities. Given a family \(\mathcal {F}\) of n conditional events \(\{E_{1}|H_{1},\ldots , E_{n}|H_{n}\}\) we denote by \(\mathcal {C}(\mathcal {F})=(E_{1}|H_{1})\wedge \cdots \wedge (E_{n}|H_{n})\) the conjunction of the conditional events in \(\mathcal F\). We introduce the iterated conditional \(\mathcal {C}(\mathcal {F}_{2})|\mathcal {C}(\mathcal {F}_{1})\), where \(\mathcal {F}_{1}\)…
On general conditional prevision assessments
2009
In this paper we consider general conditional random quantities of the kind $X|Y$, where $X$ and $Y$ are finite discrete random quantities. Then, we introduce the notion of coherence for conditional prevision assessments on finite families of general conditional random quantities. Moreover, we give a compound prevision theorem and we examine the relation between the previsions of $X|Y$ and $Y|X$. Then, we give some results on random gains and, by a suitable alternative theorem, we obtain a characterization of coherence. We also propose an algorithm for the checking of coherence. Finally, we briefly examine the case of imprecise conditional prevision assessments by introducing the notions of…
Conjunction and Disjunction Among Conditional Events
2017
We generalize, in the setting of coherence, the notions of conjunction and disjunction of two conditional events to the case of n conditional events. Given a prevision assessment on the conjunction of two conditional events, we study the set of coherent extensions for the probabilities of the two conditional events. Then, we introduce by a progressive procedure the notions of conjunction and disjunction for n conditional events. Moreover, by defining the negation of conjunction and of disjunction, we show that De Morgan’s Laws still hold. We also show that the associative and commutative properties are satisfied. Finally, we examine in detail the conjunction for a family \(\mathcal F\) of t…
Probabilistic entailment and iterated conditionals
2020
In this paper we exploit the notions of conjoined and iterated conditionals, which are defined in the setting of coherence by means of suitable conditional random quantities with values in the interval $[0,1]$. We examine the iterated conditional $(B|K)|(A|H)$, by showing that $A|H$ p-entails $B|K$ if and only if $(B|K)|(A|H) = 1$. Then, we show that a p-consistent family $\mathcal{F}=\{E_1|H_1,E_2|H_2\}$ p-entails a conditional event $E_3|H_3$ if and only if $E_3|H_3=1$, or $(E_3|H_3)|QC(\mathcal{S})=1$ for some nonempty subset $\mathcal{S}$ of $\mathcal{F}$, where $QC(\mathcal{S})$ is the quasi conjunction of the conditional events in $\mathcal{S}$. Then, we examine the inference rules $A…
Conditional Random Quantities and Compounds of Conditionals
2013
In this paper we consider finite conditional random quantities and conditional previsions assessments in the setting of coherence. We use a suitable representation for conditional random quantities; in particular the indicator of a conditional event $E|H$ is looked at as a three-valued quantity with values 1, or 0, or $p$, where $p$ is the probability of $E|H$. We introduce a notion of iterated conditional random quantity of the form $(X|H)|K$ defined as a suitable conditional random quantity, which coincides with $X|HK$ when $H \subseteq K$. Based on a recent paper by S. Kaufmann, we introduce a notion of conjunction of two conditional events and then we analyze it in the setting of cohere…
Generalized probabilistic modus ponens
2017
Modus ponens (from A and “if A then C” infer C) is one of the most basic inference rules. The probabilistic modus ponens allows for managing uncertainty by transmitting assigned uncertainties from the premises to the conclusion (i.e., from P(A) and P(C|A) infer P(C)). In this paper, we generalize the probabilistic modus ponens by replacing A by the conditional event A|H. The resulting inference rule involves iterated conditionals (formalized by conditional random quantities) and propagates previsions from the premises to the conclusion. Interestingly, the propagation rules for the lower and the upper bounds on the conclusion of the generalized probabilistic modus ponens coincide with the re…
Conditional Random Quantities and Iterated Conditioning in the Setting of Coherence
2013
We consider conditional random quantities (c.r.q.’s) in the setting of coherence. Given a numerical r.q. X and a non impossible event H, based on betting scheme we represent the c.r.q. X|H as the unconditional r.q. XH + μH c , where μ is the prevision assessed for X|H. We develop some elements for an algebra of c.r.q.’s, by giving a condition under which two c.r.q.’s X|H and Y|K coincide. We show that X|HK coincides with a suitable c.r.q. Y|K and we apply this representation to Bayesian updating of probabilities, by also deepening some aspects of Bayes’ formula. Then, we introduce a notion of iterated c.r.q. (X|H)|K, by analyzing its relationship with X|HK. Our notion of iterated conditiona…
Generalized Logical Operations among Conditional Events
2018
We generalize, by a progressive procedure, the notions of conjunction and disjunction of two conditional events to the case of n conditional events. In our coherence-based approach, conjunctions and disjunctions are suitable conditional random quantities. We define the notion of negation, by verifying De Morgan’s Laws. We also show that conjunction and disjunction satisfy the associative and commutative properties, and a monotonicity property. Then, we give some results on coherence of prevision assessments for some families of compounded conditionals; in particular we examine the Frechet-Hoeffding bounds. Moreover, we study the reverse probabilistic inference from the conjunction $\mathcal…
Algebraic aspects and coherence conditions for conjoined and disjoined conditionals
2019
We deepen the study of conjoined and disjoined conditional events in the setting of coherence. These objects, differently from other approaches, are defined in the framework of conditional random quantities. We show that some well known properties, valid in the case of unconditional events, still hold in our approach to logical operations among conditional events. In particular we prove a decomposition formula and a related additive property. Then, we introduce the set of conditional constituents generated by $n$ conditional events and we show that they satisfy the basic properties valid in the case of unconditional events. We obtain a generalized inclusion-exclusion formula and we prove a …